September 16, 2008

The Sky is Falling!

We seem to be running out of light sweet crude, but that's only a fraction of the oil resources in the world.  Even now refineries are upgrading to handle heavy sour crude which accounts for much more of the oil resources in the world than light sweet.  Beyond that we have tar sands(pdf), oil shale, and coal (all of which, with a bit of chemical hocus-pocus can be turned into fuel and such).

Those who tell you otherwise are Chicken Little types screaming about the falling sky and you should be skeptical.  There are oodles of energy resources in the world.  We will use them as the economy demands.  With light sweet crude resources dwindling
we will switch to heavy sour crude.  Current prices and technologies mean that oil shale, tar sands, and coal liquefaction are also economically viable.  Hopefully we will take this opportunity to begin switching to other technologies for energy as well.

That bad news is that we will face a transition.  It will cost money.  Prices will go up.  On the other hand, we are resilient, I simply can't believe we're facing a catastrophe.

I think I'll write a series on the realities of energy production in the near future.  It's something that quite interests me, so consider this the first in that series.

Anywho, we are not running out of hydro-carbon fuels.  Not in my life-time, my kids' life-times, nor their kids.  The grandkids will wear nylon, use plastic bags, fertilize their gardens, honk down pharmaceuticals, and probably even drive many of the same vehicles as we do today.

The world goes 'round because of energy.  Humanity exists in its current state because of our manipulation of energy.  Nearly every advance in our history has been the result of better ability to manipulate energy.  We started with the taming of fire, then water pumps, then windmills.  Today we are nearing the point where we can harness the mechanism that powers the sun.  I'm a bit of a science fiction nut, but when we accomplish that we will finally be a Type I civilization.

Posted by: roggowj at 03:21 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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