Good morning, good evening, and good afternoon, wherever you are and whatever you do.  There's a lot of things going on in the world today.  Most of 'em far beyond our control you might say.

Russia invaded Georgia and is continuing their aggression.  Even though the two have signed a cease fire.  The U.S. and Poland finally agreed to a pact and a trade.  Poland gets a bunch of nifty boomers.  The U.S. gets to build a missile intercept facility in Poland.  Russia doesn't like this arrangement one little bit.

Meanwhile, Iraq is behaving quite nicely.  Afghanistan is not behaving nicely at all.   Pakistan is hell-bent on self-destruction.  Or some sort of destruction.  Iran is waiting.
Iraq is in good shape right now.  I should think that within a few years America will have a small contingent in Iraq for training and such.  But, all of the terrorists and insurgents in Iraq aren't simply going away.  Nor are they all dying.  I think it's possible that the buggers from Iraq are going to bolster the Taliban.  Consider it a regrouping. 

Pakistan seems on the brink of failure.  And once Musharraf is gone, it's hard to say whether Pakistan will continue to support America.  It will be much harder to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda since they like to hang out around the Pakistan border where the U.S. is less able to attack them.  A surge in Afghanistan would help, but I think without reasonable help from Pakistan, we'll simply be herding the fuckers into Pakistan.  Which would be fine if they would stay there and terrorize Pakistan.  But they won't.

Russia, realized that the U.S. is busy in the Middle East right now and took this opportunity to try to re-expand their borders.  It's a pride thing, but also it's a strategic thing.  By controlling Georgia, Russia would pretty much have a monopoly on transport of goods from the Pacific Ocean and the Middle East to Europe.  Oil pipelines and such would necessarily go through Russia (or Russian territories) and Europe (big fucking weenies that they are) would pay dearly.

Iran just needs an ally that they can use to embolden them against America. If they support Russia, they might find that ally.

I'm not quite sure what to think.  The U.S. hit back pretty hard by assigning humanitarian duties to the military and sending Secretary Rice to Georgia as well as by signing the pact with Poland.  It's a pretty clear message that the U.S. will not stand and watch Russia become a new Russian empire (I doubt they care much about socialism any more, except insofar as it's useful to controlling their people and their resources).  On the other hand, Russia is already in Georgia, I'm not sure they'll be willing to turn around and go home.  Especially knowing they really wouldn't be smart to threaten Poland.  Russia will take what they can get from Georgia, but what will be their next move?

Russia went to Georgia to control the pipelines that run through the country.  They're trying to put a throttle on Europe's fuel supplies.  If they aren't trying to build a new empire, they won't have much incentive to go to Ukraine or Latvia, and I think Poland is off the table now.  Azherbaijan is likely to be the next target.

Posted by: roggowj at 02:52 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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